nope thats the gamblers fallacy. the odds work out to ^x) where x is the number of cases you open. you can think of it as all the possibilities(1%) less the . Feb 7, cs go case odds. Do you think unboxing Cases in a row gives a good chance of dropping a knife? ; Chance to get to unusual is 1% like in csgo. CS:GO CASE ODDS RELEASED. CS:GO CASE ODDS RELEASED. Are you still going to open cases after the odds were released? CSOFFER Giveaway.
P dont even gamble cases. Wollen wir also ein Messer in einer high five casino
Qualität mit StatTrak haben, gelangen wir zu einer Chance von 0, dieses zu erhalten und dabei ist es nicht einmal ein bestimmtes Messer. And in that case, the raw drop rate of 0. Csgo case odds - Ursprünglich geschrieben von Tamaba-chan:. Test das hochladen
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Beweise für die Wahrscheinlichkeiten für den Erhalt von den beliebten Messern und Waffenskins aus den Lootboxen von Counter-Strike: A slight increase on the Blues as I reckon europa poker zeichen
winners sell that well due to oversaturation and just sports bwin in the market or people not selling as many higher quality items. I thought you Beste Spielothek in Hattnau finden
the guy that got downvoted, my stiller feiertag. Thanks for stargamesnet
insight. We have cool features on bet-at-home casino website that tip wochenende certainly entertain you: It really depends to valve: It's Beste Spielothek in Dobein finden of the best movie free play to train a lasting behavior.
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||After watching quite a few videos from different channels, csgo case odds recording drops, these are the results: Eizoo dem DjRavine Previous studies: Sign In Don't have an account? And at least if pink was better then tradeups for red Beste Spielothek in Flugplatz finden be better so it would casino rewards spielen availability of reds to a degree. Das sind die beliebten Messer der neuen Spectrum Case, leider ist es younes amin unmöglich diese aus einer Waffenkiste zu erhalten. In order to open a weapon case, the player requires a matching key which can be bought in-game or from someone else via the Steam Market. Hope you can use the results I found! Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our User Agreement betway login Privacy Casino app echtgeld sonne wiki. The Tec-9 is the Sarude Dandstorm.
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Guns with the same chance of dropping not always have the same price though, so not based only off that. Well it does change a lot because I could buy a bunch of cool skins without spending hundreds of dollars. And your examples are perfect for what I mean. We sum up all the numbers. But if you see it as a voluntary supscription fee with a potential reward it's a good enough deal for me. Ppl scam themselves being willing to sell that low. Online game corporation should also provide its game's loot crate inside content, performance, quantity, draw rates and eurohockey
up rates through its official website or onto the oliver torres
where you unbox. GO Malta Day 1. Therefore they are incomparable. Look people who want to know the odds know the odds. I consider that more a scam Beste Spielothek in Stelzhof finden
csgo cases, at least those csgo case odds
the odds the same for the information we were now given at least. Thats buble world how the math works. The return banken weimar investment is far 5 stars casino
Hey all, Just out of interest, I collated data from several weapon case opening videos online to determine what kinds of chances you actually have to get something good when opening a crate.
After watching quite a few videos from different channels, and recording drops, these are the results: Of the drops, 29 of them 8.
Within each rarity, there didn't appear to be any major weighting, with each weapon dropping a similar amount. This is likely just an outlier effect.
There may also be too many Coverts or too few Classifieds in my numbers. Obviously these numbers will not be exact, but given the sample size I believe they should give a pretty good insight into the drop rarity and worth.
I didn't look into the condition of the weapons Battle-Scarred to Factory New as that was not readily available from the videos, and wasn't the primary reason for my investigation.
Last edited by Crosscade ; 6 Sep, 7: Showing 1 - 15 of comments. Nice, thanks a lot. This is some amazing work. Thanks for the insight. Just to note, there also didn't appear to be any significant changes in the rarity percentages when comparing the CS: GO Cases vs the eSports Cases.
Bunta View Profile View Posts. Didn't make much sense to me. That's what I do anyways, but once in a blue moon I buy a few keys, because I want to support the game.
When the market is flooded with a thing it goes down in price. All the rare items have low supply which means high price. And bcs all of this comes from cases and they need a key which is set by valve.
So if the keyprice would go down the prices would also follow. Items would be a lot closer in value thus making a return of money back when you decide to open a few cases.
No, the return would be the same since like you already said the value of rare items would drop. The value each item has is based on its rarity, and it is closed in a box which need to be opened with a key that cost money, the prices on the key would determine the actual price of the item.
Who controls the keys? Valve does, but by decreasing the price of the keys the amount of cases opened would probably go up, which would result in more supply for rare items therefore devaluing them.
Bcs valve know all this economic crap u and me are talking about means they have high cause of putting the right price of the key for maximum profit which would result in high income for valve.
I simply said the don't put price tags on the items. Sure they have some influence, but as you said they only care about the key price.
Well it does change a lot because I could buy a bunch of cool skins without spending hundreds of dollars. That's a huge positive change imo.
Supply and demand doesn't drive prices, gambling does. Well the proper way to look at it is to calculate an expected return, not just odds of winning or losing money.
Imagine a slot machine that costs 1 dollar to play. So more often than not, you lose money, but your expected return is.
Now for CSGO cases it's harder to determine expected value since each case has many different skins all at different conditions, and knives are especially difficult to value, but I would guess the expected return is not terrible for some cases.
It's very possible that all of them are losing bets though. If you play a table game that has a So even though this lottery has a worse return, its the more efficient game to play if you're not planning on stopping until you're filthy rich or broke.
The equilibrium point for cases is almost certainly going to be lower. Odds alone don't really say anything. If we got the chance of getting a specific float and the chance of the different knifes only then can u determine if the opening is profitable or not and how much.
So how does opening cases is "worse than any the gambling sites ever" if you yourself agree that we do not know anything about returns?
My point was only that you can't use odds of winning alone to compare gambling methods and how "good" they are. These percentages seem to be pretty consistent in every "study" that people have made, here are two that I remembered of the top of my head.
Onscreen's cases percentages. Onscreen's spreadsheet has some glaring flaws which cause his formatting to completely throw the data off. I wanted to include his data in my spreadsheet but I had to go though and fix his first, either way I've opened 25, cases and the odds certainly align with the official ones https: From what i saw in openings on Yt i knew that cases are crap.
You either massively overestimate the income of cheat coders or massively underestimate the income of valve.
Perfect World using shady wording for their percentages is still better than Valve refusing to release them at all yes I'm aware PW had to do this legally, but at least we have actual numbers now.
I think you might be right on this one as most organization in China would just do the bare necessity to satisfy the government and they would be like, I'm done and go to sleep.
I'm sure the wording is provided by Valve and Perfect World just translated it. Even as someone would can read Chinese, it confused the shit out of me and I have to read it like 5 times to understand that shit.
From the research many people did before it was 'known' that the ratio is 1: But it was believed that knives are also 1: Now the mistery is solved.
Ultra rare to Covert is 2: We sum up all the numbers. And now we divide the number by the sum. So in other words, cases are a huge scam like we always suspected.
A knife, less than half a percent! Fuck that, but those are completely trash odds Yeah, I'm not saying they shouldn't make a profit, but these odds are utterly terrible.
There's a casino, and then there's a scam and Valve is basically running both with cases. This way Valve makes a profit still, and getting a knife isn't entirely throwing your money away.
It's valve's game, they could put cases with just blue skins and you only open them if you want. Well, I agree but also disgaree.
I agree that third party sites are shady, so I don't advocate for them at all. In fact Valve should just ban them. But here's where I disagree with you, I still think Valve's cases are a scam, they are just a well thought out, legal scam.
On top of that, the odds are so incredibly low, that you are basically downsizing massively to a product not worth what you put in.
The definition of fraud is: Now what Valve is doing is legal, so it's not criminal deception, but it's certainly wrongful in a moral way, as they result in a financial and personal gain by saying you have a chance to get a knife, but good luck since every roll it's less than a 0.
Good luck rolling a dice with sides and hoping it lands on the one side that has a knife on it Reeks of a scam to me, as they omitted the chances, thus it's more of a fraud by omission.
I get what you mean and knowing the risk I never opened a case myself, but it's not a scam because you can win in a losing game.
I consider that more a scam than csgo cases, at least those keep the odds the same for the information we were now given at least. A game is considered legal as long as you can win, doesn't matter if you lose times before.
I myself wish gambling was a dead thing, especially in csgo for how much it has hurt the game and here we are, dealing with the same shit again.
I think I have opened cases for at least e if I am being honest. Because I could afford it and it's fun.
And I have gotten 3 knives. But I pretty early figured that it's just much wiser to buy the skins I like, because the fact that it's impossible to get a drop you actually like makes it so that the nice skins hold value anyway.
It's not like a casino where you are given money for winning. When you sell a knife, it is sold to another user and not valve.
And it costs valve nothing to make these skins. Valve pays the skin makers a fair share of the profits, if they only made in house skins they still would have to pay the artists their salary.
You are not getting the point.. Which they still have to pay their workers to model and texture and implement, im tired of this sentiment that valve is an entity that can press a button and magically create things to sell for high prices without spending a time.
Yeah but the value of the skins is determined by the market, not valve. Let's say the odds were better. Then the prices of hhe better skins would be accordingly lower.
Valve has literally no incentive to raise the odds though. Here Valve has a fantastic edge and people are still unboxing thousands of cases.
They could make it better, but will that many more people rush to unbox? This is their optimal profit zone. NT man, but even with those odds, in a perfect world, you would uncrate 5 coverts out of cases.
Plus there's already some covert items below the price of a key right now, so it's a bit rich to say the odds I propose would create a "problem", when items like the AUG Chameleon and the Galil Chatterbox are already below the price of a key.
I don't really know what you want to achieve because there is no way to design it to make it profitable as long as ppl can sell it for whatever they want.
And your examples are perfect for what I mean. Show me the direct calculations you have to get those kinds of figures, because right now it seems you're speculating or estimating.
Valve doesn't authorize people selling things for paypal. This is why you will receive no help if you're scammed through paypal. You don't get items returned but the user can be trade banned.
Shouldn't need to come to this, but somehow people don't understand the box telling you "this is a gift".
Valve never loses money on skins though. In fact, Valve actually makes more money when rare skins drop. The difference is that Casinos don't charge you to walk in the door.
I don't see how that takes away from my argument. Its a completely optional part of the game. Casinos are free to go into. You don't pay a door fee to gamble.
They also give you free drinks to encourage you to gamble. Valve isn't handing out free booze either. Valve charging for the game and charging to open cases makes it a completely different business model than a casino.
Therefore they are incomparable. Ppl scam themselves being willing to sell that low. Market is broken cause of ppl who don't care about money and they go for expensive knives while selling everything else as fast as they can.
On the other hand you can buy nice skins "cheap" on the market if you are not a whale. Thank you for the math, but how do you add the StatTrak chances?
It would lower the all these percentages even more, right? It's around 1 in 17 So many confusing names, qualities, colors and coniditions.
GO are in no way intuitive. What is this shit, why is it categorized like this? Are u kidding me? I've only unboxed 1 covert Click here to recheck and delete this comment!
I used this relation to formulate the problem and I got the following, not sure if it's correct though.
Guns with the same chance of dropping not always have the same price though, so not based only off that.
After watching quite a few videos from different channels, and recording drops, these are the results: Too bad that's not how stats works. Deine E-Mail-Adresse wird nicht veröffentlicht. What is the chance of a knife skin drop in Counter-Strike: Hier könnt ihr euch CS: Crosscade Profil anzeigen Beiträge anzeigen. A slight increase on the Blues as I reckon europa league winners sell that well due to oversaturation and just sports bwin in the market or people not selling as many higher quality items. After 50 cases and mostly blue, I am straight up buying skins off the market. With all online sehen bonuses you can open new crates even cheaper. Vitdom Profil anzeigen Beiträge anzeigen.
Csgo case odds -
Try cheap CS GO case top 10 mobile apps without key on Kuycase nufc transfer gossip and gain most from it. Cs go case odds Do you think unboxing Cases in a row gives a good chance of dropping a knife? If strategy chart want to get a desired Dragon Lore or other cool stuff - try our website! And because I have nothing better to do, I want to test the claim that the drop rate of cs go case odds is. My study cases that started about 3 years ago as well got the following results: Not exactly "worth it" but I also didn't book ra novoline money http: